Formula 1 is back. The 2026 regulations represent one of the most sweeping overhauls the sport has seen (at least since the last time they told us it was the most sweeping overhaul the sport has seen) with new power units, new aerodynamic philosophy, and a grid that has finally expanded to 22 cars. On paper, everyone starts from scratch. In practice, some teams will hit the ground running and others will be scrambling to keep up for the better part of the season. This preview works through every team and driver pairing on the grid, setting what I think are realistic targets & expectations, flagging the ones to watch, and making a few predictions that will almost certainly be proven wrong by the end of the Australian GP.

Formula 1’s grid finally expands to 22 cars this year with Cadillac officially joining the paddock. Let’s be real, expectations aren’t particularly high. Finishing races within touching distance of the pack and running a fairly clean ship is an acceptable baseline for a brand new team, even if points are hard to come by. One massive advantage they have right out of the gate is that they aren’t burdened with manufacturing their own engine yet. Strapping a customer Ferrari power unit into the back of the car gives them a lot more breathing room to focus their time and resources purely on building the team and refining trackside operations in these early phases.

So, what separates an average debut season from a good one for the American outfit? If they want to say they had a genuinely successful year, they need points. Just trundling around at the back is fine for survival, but to make a statement, they need to score, ideally more than once. With the amount of chaos that typically happens amongst the midfield teams, if Cadillac can keep things clean in the pit lane and avoid dropping the ball on strategy, they should be able to pick up the pieces when things go wrong or get messy.

Another huge benefit they carry into the season is their wind tunnel time. Because they are a brand new entry, they share the highest aerodynamic testing allowance in F1 with Alpine for the first half of 2026. If they use that correctly, we should see some genuine improvement in the second half of the year once they’ve found their footing, allowing them to push up towards a couple of the stragglers and knock on the door of the midfield.

Ultimately, the target is simple… don’t finish dead last. They should aim to beat at least one team and finish above 11th in the Constructors’. Honestly, they might be getting a massive freebie here. Aston Martin is having the most nightmarish start to their Honda partnership imaginable. If Aston’s preseason testing meltdown is anything to go by, Cadillac might have a surprisingly easy target to chase down.

Cadillac has locked in two of the most experienced drivers in F1 history to start their F1 era, and the expectations for both are pretty straightforward. Both Perez (285 races [8th]) and Bottas (247 races [14th]) should be aiming to score points at some point, and both need to be targeting a finish above 20th in the Drivers’ standings.

The real interesting thing here is the comparison between the teammates who previously partnered two of the GOATs of the sport. I expect these two to be very closely matched this season. They both need to be aiming to out-qualify and out-race the other every single weekend. If one of them comes in and gets absolutely destroyed or consistently beaten week in and week out, that’s going to be a massively disappointing season for that driver. They need each other to establish a reliable baseline for the car, and a lopsided garage is the last thing a new team needs. On the bright side, even if Cadillac are running on their own at the back the potential battle between these two could still provide some excitement.

Aston Martin is entering 2026 under a massive cloud of uncertainty. To put it bluntly, the start of their new works partnership with Honda has been an absolute disaster. Preseason testing was plagued by massive engine issues, leading to speculation that the team may not even complete a single racing lap at the season opener in Australia. Setting a performance goal for a team in this position is almost impossible. How do you talk about "expected points" for a car that might not make it past the first corner? We have to start with the basics and say goal number one is simply seeing the chequered flag. Unless this entire preseason has been a masterclass in sandbagging and baiting the rest of the paddock, this season is guaranteed to be horrific for the Silverstone based outfit. For a team that seemingly had its sights on title contention with massive investments in facilities and personnel, just surviving the weekend is now the benchmark.

Not much needs to be said about Fernando Alonso, we know the script by now. He is going to beat his teammate, the only real question is just how badly he does it. Even if the car is a moving chicane, at least we’ll be able to look forward to hearing him on the team radio giving feedback about yet another Honda engine.

Lance Stroll’s seat is probably never in danger, but that doesn't mean we can't set some performance targets. Last year, the qualifying gap between him and Alonso was 0.430s (0.50%). If I could set him a goal for the year, it would be to consistently close that gap down to an average of 0.300s. In a year where the car is likely to be a mess, Stroll should take the opportunity to show he can at least stay within striking distance of his teammate.

As the reigning champions, McLaren’s goal for 2026 is simply to defend the Constructors’ World Championship. While reportedly they might be starting this season slightly on the back foot, we’ve seen them build momentum better than almost anyone else on the grid, so I expect them to ramp up their performance as the year progresses even if they aren't the quickest out of the gate.

One area where I think there could be improvement found is in strategy decisions throughout the race. Last year had a few moments where McLaren was trying to keep strategies fair for both drivers, sometimes to the detriment of the actual race result. This year, they need to be less concerned about the optics of the internal battle and just pick the best possible strategy for each car in that moment. They need to prioritise the win first and manage the media and driver politics second.

This is arguably the strongest and most competitive driver pairing on the grid right now. Coming off his first World Championship, Lando Norris is in the ultimate position of strength, and his main objective is to defend that title and firmly lock away any talk of Oscar Piastri having a pace advantage over him.

For Piastri, this season is about proving that his previous problems are a thing of the past and showing he has the ability to lead this team to a title himself. To do that, he has to fix the inconsistencies he showed through the American leg of the calendar that cost him the title last year. He also needs to handle the pressure better in critical moments. We saw in Baku last year how one bad start to a weekend led to him trying to recover everything in a single corner, resulting in a costly mistake. If Piastri can maintain his cool and find that late-season consistency, we are in for an incredible fight between these two. I expect them to be pushing each other to the absolute limit every weekend, which is exactly what McLaren needs to stay at the top.

Mercedes is entering 2026 with the singular goal of returning to the dominant winning form that defined the 2014 era of regulation changes. After a very strong preseason test and a 2025 campaign where they were there or thereabouts most weekends, the silver arrows seem ready to fight at the front. With the clean slate provided by the new regulations, they should be considered firm contenders for the Constructors’ World Championship.

George Russell is coming off an exceptional year where he proved beyond doubt that he is capable of leading this team. If he maintains the level of driving he showed last season, he enters 2026 as one of the favourites for the Drivers' title. Kimi Antonelli showed steady improvement throughout his debut season, and my targets for him are ambitious but I think they’re achievable. Last year, the qualifying gap to Russell sat at 0.278s (0.34%), if Antonelli can bring that down to under 0.150s it would represent a massive step forward. Given how incredibly tight the grid was last year, finding that extra tenth could easily gain him 2–3 grid spots every weekend.

Interestingly, while Russell had the edge on Saturdays, their race pace was much more balanced towards the end of last year, and after the midseason break their head-to-head was a dead heat (5-5). I expect Russell to beat Antonelli again this season, but it could be much closer than many anticipate. If Antonelli manages to turn the tables, then to me it would be surprising but not massively so. Ideally, Russell will be contending for the title from round one, and if Antonelli’s pace holds up, Mercedes could find themselves with two drivers in the championship hunt.

Red Bull has enjoyed almost a decade of luxury with Max Verstappen behind the wheel, but that brilliance has often masked the true pace of the car. Since Daniel Ricciardo’s departure, every driver in the other car has seemingly struggled, and at a certain point, the focus has to shift from blaming the individuals to looking at the team's ability to produce a drivable second seat. The goal for 2026 is to build a car that allows Isack Hadjar to get as close as possible to Verstappen’s benchmark. If Hadjar can consistently finish within four places of Verstappen most weeks, Red Bull can consider that a successful step forward in their car development. With Verstappen leading the charge and a strong recovery shown at the tail end of last season, I expect them to be right in the hunt for both titles this year.

There isn't much left to say about Max Verstappen that hasn't been said. He is the benchmark, he is my favourite to win the title, and he is undoubtedly aiming for another Drivers’ Championship. It’s more of a question about whether the machinery is enough for him to secure the trophy.

For Isack Hadjar, the targets are purely about closing the historical gap to the other side of the garage. He needs to be significantly closer than Yuki Tsunoda was (0.606s) and more competitive than Sergio Perez’s 2024 gap (0.552s). If Hadjar can sit under 0.300s from Verstappen in qualifying, it would be a fantastic starting point. From there, he just needs to stay close-ish in the race, even if that means finishing behind the other drivers from the Big 4 teams, to provide the strategic cover Verstappen has lacked the last few years. If Hadjar somehow manages to match Verstappen within 0.100s or actually beat him, it would easily be the most shocking result of any driver pairing on the grid.

It has been over a decade since Ferrari managed to sustain a title challenge for an entire season. We’ve seen promising starts like Vettel in 2018 or Leclerc in early 2022, but the last time a Ferrari was truly in the hunt at the final race of the calendar, Fernando Alonso was still in the cockpit. With yet another massive regulation change upon us, the question in every Tifosi's mind is simple: Is this finally the year?

Based on preseason testing, there is genuine reason for optimism. The car looked bulletproof across every session, and the team seems to have hit the ground running with the new design philosophy. I expect Ferrari to be contending for both titles deep into the season, if not right up until the final chequered flag. They already have the driver pairing to do the job, they just need to provide the machinery to match. As a side note, while the strategy was actually fairly solid for most of last year I’m hoping, for the drivers’ sake, that they’re slightly more clear and concise on the radio this year. I’m backing Ferrari to take home the Constructors' Title this year, or at the very least, be fighting for it until the very end.

Last year, Leclerc handled the internal battle pretty handily, particularly on Saturdays. If he maintains that qualifying edge and Ferrari delivers a car capable of leading from the front, he is the clear choice to spearhead their championship charge. So if a Ferrari driver is going to take the WDC this year, my money is probably on Leclerc.

Lewis Hamilton had a poor year by his own lofty standards in 2025, appearing to struggle with the car throughout most of the season. These new regulations bring a shift in design philosophy with less downforce coming from the floor, that might be exactly what he needs to solve those issues. If Ferrari wants that Constructors' trophy, they need both drivers firing on all cylinders to give them an advantage over Red Bull and probably Mercedes (McLaren’s driver pairing is probably of similar quality to Ferrari’s). While Leclerc has the momentum, if Hamilton senses that a record breaking eighth world title is even a remote possibility, he might just find an extra gear to push up to, and even past his teammate.

To say last year was a disaster for the French outfit would be a massive understatement. They spent way too much time at the back of the grid, and their primary goal for 2026 has to be dragging themselves out of that backmarker conversation and firmly rejoining the midfield pack.

The ultimate target for Alpine should be a 5th place finish in the Constructors’, effectively making them the ‘Best of the Rest’. Realistically, they are going to spend most of their time in the trenches fighting the other midfield outfits, and there will probably be a pretty decent margin between them and the big four teams at the front. However, a genuinely good season for them wouldn’t just be picking up the scraps at the bottom of the top ten. We need to see them have a race or two where the car really comes alive and they are pushing towards P8 or higher on pure merit, not just because half the grid crashed out.

Looking at the garage, Pierre Gasly needs a bounce-back year. A top 10 finish in the Drivers’ standings would be a great turnaround for him after a really disappointing previous campaign where he was hampered by his machinery. Naturally, I expect him to continue dominating his teammate in qualifying, but where he really needs to push is his consistency on Sundays. If he can wring the neck of that car and finish P8 or higher on pure pace a couple of times this year (similar to his 2020 & 2021 seasons at AlphaTauri), that’s a massive result for him and the team.

On the other side of the garage, Franco Colapinto has a very clear checklist for this season. The immediate priority is closing the gap in qualifying, where he was dominated by Gasly in 2025 with an average gap of 0.282s (0.33%). If Colapinto can consistently narrow that deficit and start properly challenging Gasly on Saturdays, he puts himself in a much better position to turn his more competitive race pace into consistent points. Ultimately, dragging this car into the points and maintaining touching distance to his teammate is the goal for him this year, he doesn’t need to beat Gasly, just sit right on his tail.

The Sauber era is officially over, and Audi has finally arrived as a works team. When a massive manufacturer enters the sport, the expectations naturally shift, but they need to walk before they can run. The absolute number one priority for Audi this year has to be engine reliability. This is year one of the new regulations with a power unit developed completely in-house. If that engine spends half the season smoking out the back, nothing else they do with the car is going to matter.

Pace wise, they don't need to be leading the midfield charge just yet, but they cannot afford to be falling backwards into the clutches of Cadillac. Most weekends, they need to be in contention for those bottom two points-paying positions (P9 and P10) on genuine, sustained pace. If the engine holds together and they can consistently fight for those lower points finishes, the ultimate goal for their debut works season should be competing with Alpine for the ‘Best of the Rest’ title.

The dynamic at Audi is particularly interesting because the points from last year don't actually tell the full story of the pace of the drivers. While Nico Hulkenberg finished higher in the standings and was the better driver most Sundays, in qualifying Gabriel Bortoleto was actually the faster driver more often than not. Across all rounds (including Sprints), Bortoleto out qualified Hulkenberg 15-13. The mean qualifying gap of 1.367s in Hulkenberg's favour is heavily skewed by outliers, most notably the United States GP (SQ1) where a 36 second gap was recorded because Bortoleto didn't set a representative time due to track limits. When you filter out some of the more extreme mistakes, Bortoleto has a slight pace advantage of 0.013s (0.02%) over Hulkenberg across the season.

For Hulkenberg, the goal this year is to find that extra tenth or two on Saturdays to push himself a couple places up the grid to aid his great performance in races, hopefully resulting in a few more points. Bortoleto has shown he has the outright speed to beat Hulkenberg, but those mistakes are lost opportunities. If he can maintain his qualifying edge while cleaning up his consistency and execution in both qualifying and in the race, then he should take another solid step in his second season improving the already exciting baseline he showed as a rookie.

Prior to preseason testing, the narrative for Williams was all about momentum. After making a massive leap last year to be the class of the midfield, the goal should have been a straightforward defence of that "Best of the Rest" title. However, reality has set in quickly. After missing the start of testing and dealing with reports that their car is a massive 30kg overweight, those ambitions have had to be drastically revised.

Heading into this year, the primary goal for Williams is simply mid season recovery. They have to avoid becoming a true backmarker alongside the likes of Cadillac (and possibly Aston Martin). Even if they start the year significantly off the pace, the benchmark for success is whether they can develop their way back into the fight with Audi, Alpine, and Haas by the time the European leg rolls around. Under James Vowles' leadership, Williams has looked like a team finally on the up, finishing in the bottom two of the Constructors’ standings at the end of this season would be a massive step backward and a genuinely disappointing result.

In Albon and Sainz, Williams arguably possesses one of the strongest and most balanced driver pairings on the entire grid. Both drivers put in great performances last year, and the team should be leaning on that stability while they scramble to fix the car’s fundamental weight issues.

For Albon, this season is about finding the consistency that he had in the early part of his 2025 campaign. He had a rough ending to last year, and he needs to get back to showing that he can extract the maximum from the machinery even when it isn't perfect. Conversely, Sainz will be looking to build on the momentum he found towards the end of last season after his own difficult start.

I expect these two to be incredibly closely matched with Sainz taking a slight upper hand. If either one is clearly outperformed by the other, it’ll be a disappointing look for the driver falling behind. However, because they’ll likely spend the majority of the year acting as development drivers trying to save a heavy car, I don’t expect them to be fighting each other too fiercely on track. If they can find themselves contending for the tail end of the points by the season’s close, it will represent a solid recovery for both the drivers and the team after a poor start to these new regulations.

Expectations for the Red Bull sister team are rarely particularly high, their primary function remains serving as a proving ground for potential Red Bull drivers to showcase their talent. Maintaining a consistent position in and around the midfield is likely the most we can reasonably expect from them, so I’d expect them to finish somewhere between 7th-9th in the Constructors’. The main things I expect from the team are a decent strategy and very few pit lane mistakes to truly allow the drivers to show what they've got. As long as they aren't completely off the pace, nobody is really demanding much more.

As is typical for the Racing Bulls team, at least one driver is in danger of losing their seat this year, so the stakes are quite high. For Liam Lawson, this season is about beating Lindblad to save his F1 career. While no one is quite knocking down the door for an F1 seat yet, Nikola Tsolov is racing his first full season in F2 and if he impresses, at least one of the drivers in the current Red Bull F1 program will likely have to go. Lawson had a rough start to last year after being unceremoniously dumped back to the junior team and was fairly convincingly outperformed by Isack Hadjar. On average, he was 0.248s (0.32%) off his teammate in qualifying and only managed to out qualify him 4 times. While Lawson’s race pace wasn't too bad relative to his Saturdays, he needs to beat Lindblad this year (likely in a similar manner to how Hadjar beat him) to ensure his seat is safe.

Arvid Lindblad enters his rookie season with a bit more runway than Lawson, but the Red Bull program is notorious for its ruthlessness. If he can park himself directly on the pace with Lawson he gives himself a very good chance at a second season, even if he isn’t beating him every single week. What he can’t afford is to be completely off the pace or error prone, and he definitely can’t be both. With Lawson trying to save his F1 career and Lindblad trying to lay the groundwork to start his own, I expect these two to be closely matched, this could be a fun battle to watch.

Haas should be looking to join Alpine and Audi in a jump towards the top of the midfield this season. At the very least, they need to be clearing the likes of Williams, Aston Martin, and Racing Bulls, ensuring they don't slide back towards the newcomer Cadillac. I’d expect to see them fighting Alpine and Audi for that ‘Best of the Rest’ title and P5 in the Constructors’ standings. Based on last year, if the car suits a particular track they might push up towards the top 4 teams occasionally and sneak in a P8 or higher once or twice.

The driver dynamic at Haas is one to watch, especially given how last season ended. Expectations are pretty high for Oliver Bearman after the run he went on following the mid season break. While he and Esteban Ocon looked like a fairly close pairing early on, Bearman shifted into another gear in the second half of the year, effectively dominating in both qualifying and race trim. Ocon was reportedly unhappy with the car's behaviour towards the end of last year, so these new regulations offer him the clean slate he needs to reset. He has to match his teammate this season. If he gets beaten the same way he was at the tail end of 2025, it puts both him and the team in a tough position.

Bearman seemed to get the hang of F1 almost immediately and should now be looking to move past simple teammate comparisons. By pushing the limits of the Haas and leaving Ocon behind, he can make himself the obvious target for a top tier seat as the 2026 edition of F1 musical chairs begins. I expect Bearman to beat Ocon by a decent margin if that late season form continues, but Ocon will be banking on this new car to turn his fortunes around.

My Prediction for the Drivers’ Championship podium:

Verstappen, Leclerc, Russell.

Verstappen is simply the safest bet in the sport regardless of what machinery he's handed, and he ended last season by almost chasing down a 104 point gap to the championship leader to snatch the title. For Leclerc, I think Ferrari will be the fastest this year and he will do his best to capitalise, pushing on from his good showing last season. Russell has quickly become one of the most consistent drivers on the grid and if Mercedes have genuinely nailed the new regulations, he will be in the fight until the very end. Piastri and Norris are the obvious omissions and both are absolutely capable of raining on my parade but I think McLaren starts a touch slower this year, before coming back into it after a few races.

For the Constructors':

Ferrari.

It’s been a long time coming, and I've probably jinxed it entirely by even considering it as a possibility.

Excluding the obvious, here are the drivers I’ll be keeping an eye on this season:

Fernando Alonso
The car is a potential disaster, which paradoxically means we might be treated to some of his finest work. He won't be winning races, but the radio messages alone might keep us entertained all season.

Kimi Antonelli
The qualifying gap to Russell is the number to track all year. If he closes it to under 0.150s he immediately places himself in a competitive place for every race this year.

Gabriel Bortoleto
The raw speed is already there. If he tidies up the execution in his second season, he could quite comfortably flip the Audi race head to head this year.

Isack Hadjar
Possibly the most interesting wildcard on the grid. Every driver that has sat opposite Verstappen in recent years has looked soul-crushingly slow in comparison. If Hadjar can keep the gap under 0.300s and keep himself relevant strategically, Red Bull finally has something to work with on the other side of the garage.

The Racing Bulls pair
With Lawson fighting for his career and Lindblad trying to start his, there's more genuine tension in that garage than almost anywhere else on the grid. If the car is even vaguely competitive, this could quietly become one of the better internal battles of the season.

Alright, those are my thoughts… don’t quote me on them.